Trucking executives are bracing for potential rate squeezes to close out a prolonged freight recession.
Favorable rates for shippers in recent years have come at the expense of carriers, many of whom have downsized fleets and encountered financial hits. Trucking execs have therefore warned of lackluster prices making their businesses unsustainable.
But it’s anyone’s guess when prices will start increasing. On recent Q4 earnings calls, industry leaders shared their thoughts and indicated positive outlooks — even amid uncertainty.
"No one knows what the market is going to be between now and 2026. But we're going to control what we can control and keep the discipline," C.H. Robinson Worldwide CFO Damon Lee said Jan. 29.
C.H. Robinson notes lingering freight recession
Leadership at the brokerage giant is evaluating how the cycle could unfold. The inflection could be gradual or a “very quick turnaround,” said Michael Castagnetto, the firm’s president of North American Surface Transportation.
"I don't think anyone on this call would give you a crystal ball of what we think is going to happen in 2025 from a volume perspective,” Castagnetto said. “I think everybody in our industry has been trying to predict that for the last 36 months. And it keeps extending.”
Knight-Swift forecasts stronger rate increases
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings suggested a case for optimism in market improvement.
The carrier projects bid increases in the "mid-single digits" or higher in truckload, CEO Adam Miller said Jan. 22.
"We're expecting the bid season to be favorable from a contractual rate standpoint. And so we'd expect some of those rate increases to begin to be implemented in Q2,” Miller said.
Additionally, the company’s LTL division does not plan to discount pricing to win volume, he said.
Landstar anticipates slow rate recovery
Despite a sluggish industrial manufacturing environment, Landstar System President and CEO Frank Lonegro expects an eventual intersection of continued capacity attrition and demand that will lead to a positive rate inflection in 2025 or 2026.
"I don’t think rates are going to boomerang back. I think there’s going to be a slow steady progress of rate improvement throughout 2025, absent policy overtones,” Lonegro said Jan. 29.
Old Dominion Freight Line notes price improvements
The industrial market currently has reasons for a positive outlook, executives said, despite a weaker economic period.
Industry volumes have been down roughly 15% compared to 2021 and 2022, according to EVP and CFO Adam Satterfield, but Old Dominion’s 2024 revenue per hundredweight was up 3.8% year over year in Q4, excluding a fuel surcharge.
“We're still getting good price increases,” Satterfield said earlier this month, adding that the carrier is looking at “individual account profitability” and achieving “increases that offset our costs but also continue to support the investments in new service centers and new technologies.”
Schneider sees trucking market improving
Pricing this year appears poised to outperform 2025, according to Schneider National.
"We do believe we're entering a more constructive pricing market and building upon some of the progress, although modest progress, that we had in 2024,” President and CEO Mark Rourke said Jan. 30.
J.B. Hunt stresses need for pricing increase
J.B. Hunt Transport Services expressed optimism about increasing its pricing, noting its business is discussing the matter with customers individually and pointing to its service history during the current freight recession.
"Due to inflationary cost pressure across our business and the deflationary pricing experienced over the last two years, we will need to correct our pricing while remaining focused on our cost to return our business to reinvestable levels,” EVP and Intermodal President Darren Field said Jan. 16.
