WASHINGTON — The presidential race is too close to call, and anyone who says otherwise “is not really being honest,” Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, told trucking leaders Wednesday.
“We are back to a close, evenly divided race,” said Gonzales, a political commentator who has appeared on NBC's Meet the Press and Nightly News, during an address at the Truckload Carriers Association’s Fall Business Meeting.
But the day after Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump’s first debate, Gonzales said, “I would rather be Harris at this point in the race.”
“I don't want you to walk out of here and say that ‘he's guaranteeing Harris is going to win,’ or ‘Trump doesn't have a chance,’ [or] ‘he's saying Trump can't win.’ It's not what I'm saying at all,” Gonzales added. “But when you look at the momentum that Harris has, and the opportunity that she has to improve, there is more opportunity for her to improve.”
Gonzales presented a slideshow on the state of the presidential campaign as well the most contested Senate and House seats on the ballot this fall. Executives received the politics briefing ahead of advocating for truck parking funding during TCA’s Call on Washington Thursday.
Truckload leaders lobbied lawmakers for passage of the Truck Parking Safety Improvement Act, which would provide $755 million for truck parking from the Highway Trust Fund, according to talking points.
Gonzales’ presentation never mentioned trucking specifically, but TCA’s selection of a politics expert for its keynote reflected the industry’s interest in the race. The American Trucking Associations picked Swing Voter Project founder Rich Thau and political strategist Karl Rove to speak at last year’s and this year’s Management Conference & Exhibitions.
Questions from the audience of carrier leaders and TCA staff touched on various congressional races, independent and swing voters, Robert Kennedy Jr.’s exit from the race (“Kennedy was on the road to irrelevancy before he dropped out,” Gonzales replied) and polling.
Campaign finance reports showed Harris outraising and outspending Trump in August and having more cash on hand, per Ballotpedia. Around 1.3 million donors who gave to Harris in August had not previously donated in this election cycle, Gonzales said.
“Harris has also taken what I would describe as apathetic Biden voters and turned them not only into Harris voters, but turned them into volunteers, turned them into donors,” Gonzales said. “That’s evidence that it’s not just — what do the kids say? — vibes.”
David Heller, the association’s SVP of safety & government affairs, said his 18-year-old son had shown no interest in casting his first vote at the beginning of the election, when it was a Biden-Trump rematch.
“Major shift: Kamala Harris enters. All of a sudden, he’s interested in the election,” Heller said. “Do you have any demographic type of numbers that show what that looks like now, since the presidential election shift from Biden to Harris?”
Trump had been making inroads with young voters, even if he wasn’t winning them overall, Gonzales said.
“Harris has gotten back a chunk of that,” he said. “There isn't as much polling about specific demographics as there is on some of the individual races. But part of her doing better in the polls is because she has reformed much of the traditional Democratic base.”
Public opinion and support for Trump “really does not change,” Gonzales said.
“Republicans have to drag Harris down, and they might be able to do that,” he said.
But that effort came up short during Tuesday’s debate, Gonzales said.
“I don't think last night really helped Trump,” he said.
