Signs of market seasonality in Q3 have carried into Q4, but a freight market rebound is not expected this year, Ryder System executives said Thursday on an earnings call.
“What we saw in Q3 was a seasonal pickup, certainly not any type of larger pickup that would indicate the market is coming back,” CEO and Chairman Robert Sanchez said. “But a seasonal pickup is better than a decline.”
While an inflection point might not come until next year, Ryder nevertheless projects year-over-year earnings growth in the final quarter of 2024, according to an investor presentation.
“There’s been no signs of recovery yet here in the fourth quarter, and we’re certainly not expecting that to happen here ... other than the normal seasonal holiday increase that we would typically get from a demand perspective with Thanksgiving and Christmas,” Fleet Management Solutions President Tom Havens said on the earnings call.
The extended freight downturn and economic uncertainty have been causing some customers and prospects to delay decisions and downsize their fleets, according to the company.
Private fleets, which have been significantly growing in recent years, are pulling back, executives said. “When we get to the renewal stage of the leases, we have seen some customers downsize their fleet. So let’s say they’re renewing 10 units; they might only renew nine, something like that,” Havens said.
An upturn sometime in 2025 is “reasonable to expect,” it’s just unclear on the timing, Sanchez said.
“But we are not calling for that to happen in the fourth quarter,” he said.
