Demand is showing up in pockets and even showing some solid strength overall, according to multiple trucking leaders.
Trucking customers are showing stability and resiliency, Schneider National and J.B. Hunt Transport Services executives said June 9 at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference.
For Schneider, a lack of interest rate cuts has affected portions of its portfolio sensitive to lending, such as homebuilding and automotive areas, said Jim Filter, EVP and group president of transportation and logistics.
"We came into the year expecting that we could see a couple of interest rate cuts," Filter said. "At this point, we're probably just as likely to see an interest rate increase as a cut."
Automotive sales have been in recession territory since the spring of 2020, and recovery in U.S. sales is not expected to reach 2019 levels until 2029, according to a Morningstar report.
Higher prices are adversely affecting sales due to the average vehicle costing around $50,000, the report noted.
But analysts note market dynamics are bringing significant shifts — especially amid capacity crunches.
All-in spot rates are running around 50% higher year over year, FTR Transportation Intelligence VP of Trucking Avery Vise said in an email, adding the firm expects YoY growth in contract rates to rise higher throughout the year.
"The freight rate recession clearly is over and has been for a while," Vise wrote.
Nevertheless, manufacturing production in certain areas, such as household appliances and furniture products, are at decade-low levels, excluding the 2020 pandemic-lockdown months, Michigan State University Supply Chain Management Professor Jason Miller said in an email.
In contrast, sectors involving the artificial intelligence ecosystem buildout have "incredibly strong demand," led by electrical goods wholesalers, Miller noted.
Seasonally adjusted imports of computers and computer parts had been averaging $13 billion a month in 2023 but reached $52 billion in April 2026, an increase that’s four times higher than before, Miller noted.
Tonnage indices show a more static environment — or at least one marked by much less intensive growth.
For April, the American Trucking Associations' seasonally adjusted tonnage index increased 3.5% year over year.
In contrast, Miller’s ton-mile index suggests that demand has been even more limited, up 0.3% YoY. The index is produced with University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Supply Chain Management Professor Yemisi Bolumole, and examines freight across 41 industries.
Despite lower volumes, the more notable storyline is the surge in estimated revenue, Miller said in the email. Using the producer price index as a multiplier, that "places top-line revenue near the highs from Q2 2022," he wrote.
