While various businesses are preemptively responding to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, economists are curious to see exactly what tariffs the next administration will implement — and how they could affect the trucking industry.
Trump's various proposals, discussed before and after he secured his second term, include 25% tariffs across North America and much more aggressive trade barriers against China.
“He’s talked about a 60% tariff from all goods from China and 10% to 20% tariffs on goods from all other countries,” American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said Monday on a segment of Transport Topics’ “TT Newsmakers.” “Sometimes this is used as a negotiating chip.”
The trucking industry will be monitoring any tariffs on China, as well as Mexico or Canada, which have become increasingly significant sources of domestic freight as manufacturers have shifted facilities to North America.
“We, as an industry, need to watch this closely because tariffs act as a tax on the consumer,” Costello said.
Trump could create exemptions for certain commodities, but tariffs could also substantially slow down economic activity, said Cliff Winston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“The whole goal of the administration is to significantly reduce the movement of goods, particularly from abroad,” Winston said last week in an interview with Trucking Dive. “That’s got to affect the trucking industry.”
Slower economic activity from tariffs may also potentially offset tax cut extensions, Costello said.
Aside from unknowns with tariffs and potential port strikes along the East and Gulf coasts, Costello anticipates the trucking environment will get better in 2025 compared to 2024, but he doesn’t expect a big boom.
Additionally, tariffs could take months to take effect.
“We don’t know how much this will escalate,” Winston said, adding that there is certainty elsewhere: “We know Trump is not going to back down.”
